From the Publisher: December 2016
America’s Big Surprise
By Art Suberbielle
After the Presidential election caught the pollsters by surprise, we’re hearing all sorts of explanations (excuses) as to why they were all off the mark. I’d like to offer a couple of observations that also might enlighten you as to what really happened.
By far, the most common explanation offered is that the white working class voters turned out in much higher than usual numbers to vote for Donald Trump. That may well be true. But another huge block of voters that also were motivated to do the same were the Catholics and other Christians. These two groups have not received much coverage in the mainstream media for some unknown reason. However, both groups were diametrically opposed to Ms. Clinton’s stand on abortion, among other things. And there was a huge groundswell movement by members in both groups to mount a prayer campaign for Trump’s victory and to get their membership to vote. In my opinion, this effort was the key factor in Trump’s surprising victory in winning many of the key state battles.
Another factor many have overlooked and refused to acknowledge is the unwillingness of many to participate in these annoying telephone surveys. While a good number of potential voters no longer have home phones, this makes it much more difficult to poll them. Calling random cell phone numbers makes it hard to target geographic areas. Many others like me prefer to maintain the privacy our home affords and do not participate in these polls.
How many times has the peace and quiet of your home been interrupted by a ringing telephone only to discover a recorded message announcing a poll or a message from a candidate? I quickly hang up as do many of you. In fact, I don’t know of any of my acquaintances who have participated in these telephone fiascos.
Polling is big business, but the methodology needs to be completely revised to account for the present day technology and attitudes of the public. And candidates would be well served to take note that the public is indeed listening to their positions on important issues.